Bari 4-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Bari welcome Modena to Stadio Comunale San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 December 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 1L across 7 games at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Modena — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 3W 1D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bari) versus 1.80 (Modena). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Modena in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 56% versus Modena 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 44% | Modena 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.33 xG and Modena 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.951 / defence 1.134 | Modena attack 1.076 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.077. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Bari games / 16 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 35% | Draw 30% | Modena 35%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Modena 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 57% | Modena 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 35% | Draw 30% | Modena 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Bari 1.33 / Modena 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.951 / def 1.134 | Modena attack 1.076 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Modena xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Modena kick off?
Bari vs Modena kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Modena?
Bari 4 - 1 Modena.
Where is Bari vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Modena part of?
Bari vs Modena is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 35% chance of winning, Modena a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bari and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Modena in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Modena (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.95) and Modena's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.32
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bari xG
Total xG
2.64
1.31
Modena xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bari and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bari and 1.31 for Modena, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 6W 8D 2L from 16 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 7L across 16 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.62 PPG, Modena on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 1W 5D 1L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.62 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Modena's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.50 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Modena in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 6W 8D 2L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Modena have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.14 PPG; Modena away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Bari or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Modena in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Bari won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Modena specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Modena have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bari 3-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 57%, Modena 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bari) and 57% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Bari have failed to score in 43% of games; Modena in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bari's games and 57% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bari's recent games and 57% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Modena tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Modena in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bari run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Modena 4-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.33 xG and Modena 1.31 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Modena attack 1.08 / defence 1.20, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 35% | Draw 30% | Modena 35%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 44%, Modena 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.62 PPG, Modena 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.