Bari 2-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Benevento make the trip to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to face Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bari have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bari's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Benevento's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Bari. A 1.10 PPG lead over Benevento (1.70 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bari, 0 for Benevento and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 47% versus Benevento 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 40% | Benevento 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.15 xG and Benevento 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.005 / defence 1.016 | Benevento attack 0.856 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 0.987. Data: 30 Bari games / 68 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 42% | Draw 31% | Benevento 27%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Benevento 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Bari 50% | Benevento 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 42% | Draw 31% | Benevento 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Bari 1.15 / Benevento 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.005 / def 1.016 | Benevento attack 0.856 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.179 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Bari (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Benevento xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Benevento kick off?
Bari vs Benevento kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Benevento?
Bari 2 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Bari vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Benevento part of?
Bari vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 42% chance of winning, Benevento a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bari and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 0W | Draws 1 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Bari and Benevento in?
Bari (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Benevento (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bari's attack at 1.00x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.86x) against Bari's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.18
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Bari xG
Total xG
2.01
0.86
Benevento xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bari and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bari and 0.86 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Bari have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 13W 11D 6L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Benevento's form line: 6W 11D 13L from 30 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Bari are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Benevento.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (5W 7D 3L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 3W 7D 5L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.77 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Benevento in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 13W 11D 6L in their last 30 games (1.67 PPG), while Benevento have gone 6W 11D 13L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Benevento away?
Bari's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.47 PPG; Benevento away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Bari or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Benevento in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bari
1
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Benevento?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Benevento have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Bari 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Benevento?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 53%, Benevento 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bari) and 27% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bari have failed to score in 33% of games; Benevento in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Bari's recent matches and 47% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bari's recent games and 27% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Benevento tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Benevento in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Benevento 2-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.15 xG and Benevento 0.86 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benevento landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Benevento attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 42% | Draw 31% | Benevento 27%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 40%, Benevento 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benevento's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.