Bari 1-1 Avellino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bari at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Avellino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Nicola plays host to Bari versus Avellino in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 27 December 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio San Nicola — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Avellino have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Avellino have posted 2W 3D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Avellino half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 59% versus Avellino 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 47% | Avellino 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.48 xG and Avellino 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.957 / defence 1.101 | Avellino attack 0.816 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.037. Data: 55 Bari games / 17 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 48% | Draw 29% | Avellino 22%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Avellino 4.55. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bari 70% | Avellino 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 48% | Draw 29% | Avellino 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Bari 1.48 / Avellino 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.957 / def 1.101 | Avellino attack 0.816 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Bari (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Avellino xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Avellino kick off?
Bari vs Avellino kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 27 December 2025 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Avellino?
Bari 1 - 1 Avellino.
Where is Bari vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Avellino part of?
Bari vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 48% chance of winning, Avellino a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Avellino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Avellino in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Avellino (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bari's attack at 0.96x the league average against Avellino's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.82x) against Bari's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.43
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Bari xG
Total xG
2.41
0.93
Avellino xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
5%
19.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bari and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Bari and 0.93 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bari's recent record stands at 3W 7D 7L from 17 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 6L across 17 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Bari against 1.24 for Avellino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bari have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Bari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Avellino's away record stands at 2W 3D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.18 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Avellino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Avellino in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Avellino have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Avellino away?
Bari's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.50 PPG; Avellino away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bari
1
Draws
1
Avellino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Avellino?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 0, Avellino have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Avellino last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Avellino 2-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Avellino?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 75%, Avellino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bari) and 38% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Avellino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Avellino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Bari's games and 50% of Avellino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bari's recent games and 38% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Avellino tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Avellino in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Avellino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 18, as Bari and Avellino drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.48 xG and Avellino 0.93 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Avellino attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 48% | Draw 29% | Avellino 22%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 47%, Avellino 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Avellino's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 0.94 PPG, Avellino 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.