Avellino 1-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avellino at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi to take on Avellino. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Avellino have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avellino at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi this season: 4W 3D 2L from 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Avellino 1.30 PPG, Carrarese 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Avellino, 0 for Carrarese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 4–3 with Avellino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Avellino in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 53% versus Carrarese 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 47% | Carrarese 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.98 xG and Carrarese 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 0.986 / defence 1.445 | Carrarese attack 1.083 / defence 1.528. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.021. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.528 — this is suppressing Avellino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Avellino games / 57 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 46% | Draw 23% | Carrarese 31%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Carrarese 3.23. Avellino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Avellino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Avellino 56% | Carrarese 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 46% | Draw 23% | Carrarese 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Avellino 1.98 / Carrarese 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 0.986 / def 1.445 | Carrarese attack 1.083 / def 1.528 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Avellino (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Carrarese xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Carrarese kick off?
Avellino vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Carrarese?
Avellino 1 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Avellino vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Carrarese part of?
Avellino vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 46% chance of winning, Carrarese a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Avellino and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Avellino 1W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Avellino and Carrarese in?
Avellino (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Carrarese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Avellino's attack rating (0.99) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Avellino's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
46%
2.18
23%
4.27
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Avellino xG
Total xG
3.57
1.60
Carrarese xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
4%
23.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Avellino and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Avellino and 1.60 for Carrarese, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Avellino have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 6W 7D 6L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 5W 8D 6L from 19 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Avellino on 1.32 PPG, Carrarese on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Avellino have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 4D 4L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Avellino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Avellino are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.32 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Carrarese away?
Avellino's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.67 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Avellino or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Carrarese in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Avellino and Carrarese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avellino
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Avellino have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Avellino 1-2 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Avellino at 56%, Carrarese at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Avellino and 67% for Carrarese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Avellino have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Avellino's games and 78% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avellino vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Avellino's matches and 67% of Carrarese's.
Do Avellino and Carrarese tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carrarese defy the odds to beat Avellino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Avellino 1-2 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.98 xG and Carrarese 1.60 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Avellino fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.99 / defence 1.45 against Carrarese attack 1.08 / defence 1.53, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 46% | Draw 23% | Carrarese 31%, with Avellino to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 47%, Carrarese 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Avellino 1.32 PPG, Carrarese 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.