Ascoli 1-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Perugia at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 24 as Ascoli welcome Perugia to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Perugia — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Perugia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Perugia are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ascoli, 2 for Perugia and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Perugia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ascoli trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Perugia trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 52% versus Perugia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 40% | Perugia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.97 xG and Perugia 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.874 / defence 1.187 | Perugia attack 1.003 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.018. Data: 61 Ascoli games / 61 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 29% | Draw 30% | Perugia 41%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Perugia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Perugia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 60% | Perugia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 29% | Draw 30% | Perugia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Ascoli 0.97 / Perugia 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.874 / def 1.187 | Perugia attack 1.003 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Perugia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Perugia xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Perugia kick off?
Ascoli vs Perugia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Perugia?
Ascoli 1 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Ascoli vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Perugia part of?
Ascoli vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 29% chance of winning, Perugia a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ascoli and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Perugia?
Record (3 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Perugia 2W.
What form are Ascoli and Perugia in?
Ascoli (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Perugia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.87) and Perugia's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.39
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.19
1.21
Perugia xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.6 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.21 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 25W 16D 21L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia's form line: 21W 21D 20L from 62 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.47 PPG, Perugia on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.29 PPG from 31 outings (10W 10D 11L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 10W 10D 11L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.08 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Perugia in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 25W 16D 21L in their last 62 games (1.47 PPG), while Perugia have gone 21W 21D 20L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Perugia away?
Ascoli's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.29 PPG; Perugia away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Perugia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ascoli and Perugia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ascoli's record when hosting Perugia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ascoli
0
Draws
2
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Perugia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Ascoli 1-0 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 52%, Perugia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Ascoli) and 39% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Perugia in 32%; Ascoli have failed to score in 32% of games; Perugia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ascoli's recent matches and 48% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ascoli's recent games and 39% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Perugia tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Perugia in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Perugia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Perugia 1-0 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.97 xG and Perugia 1.21 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Perugia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Perugia attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 29% | Draw 30% | Perugia 41%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 40%, Perugia 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Perugia's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.47 PPG, Perugia 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ascoli win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.