Ascoli 1-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 40%, yet in-form Palermo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ascoli vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Ascoli welcome Palermo to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palermo are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ascoli, 0 for Palermo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 3–2 with Ascoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 57% versus Palermo 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 38% | Palermo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.35 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.914 / defence 1.097 | Palermo attack 1.030 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.041. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Ascoli games / 21 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 28% | Palermo 32%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Palermo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palermo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 60% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 40% | Draw 28% | Palermo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Ascoli 1.35 / Palermo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.914 / def 1.097 | Palermo attack 1.030 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Palermo xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Palermo kick off?
Ascoli vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Palermo?
Ascoli 1 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Ascoli vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Palermo part of?
Ascoli vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 40% chance of winning, Palermo a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ascoli and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Palermo in?
Ascoli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.91) and Palermo's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.59
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.52
1.18
Palermo xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.18 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 8D 7L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.24 PPG, Palermo on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ascoli's home form reads 2W 4D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.10 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Palermo in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 6W 8D 7L in their last 21 games (1.24 PPG), while Palermo have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Palermo away?
Ascoli's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.00 PPG; Palermo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Palermo in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ascoli's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Palermo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Palermo 2-2 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 60%, Palermo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ascoli) and 40% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 40% of games; Palermo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ascoli's games and 50% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ascoli's recent games and 40% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Palermo tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Palermo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Ascoli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Ascoli 1-2 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.35 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Palermo attack 1.03 / defence 1.29, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 40% | Draw 28% | Palermo 32%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 38%, Palermo 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.24 PPG, Palermo 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.