Ascoli 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ascoli and Monza meet at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ascoli's home record at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Serie B appearances (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Monza (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza away from home this season: 0W 5D 2L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Ascoli, 1.60 for Monza — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Ascoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 62% versus Monza 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 46% | Monza 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.03 xG and Monza 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.882 / defence 1.260 | Monza attack 0.626 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.176. Data: 13 Ascoli games / 13 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 36% | Draw 33% | Monza 31%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Monza 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ascoli are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 50% | Monza 57%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 36% | Draw 33% | Monza 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Ascoli 1.03 / Monza 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.882 / def 1.260 | Monza attack 0.626 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Monza xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Monza kick off?
Ascoli vs Monza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Monza?
Ascoli 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Ascoli vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Monza part of?
Ascoli vs Monza is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 36% chance of winning, Monza a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ascoli and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Monza in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Monza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.88) and Monza's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.63x) against Ascoli's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
36%
2.76
33%
3.03
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.96
0.93
Monza xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.93 for Monza, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ascoli's recent record stands at 6W 3D 4L from 13 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 2L across 13 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Ascoli against 1.62 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.62 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Monza's away record stands at 0W 4D 2L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.08 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Monza in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Monza in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Monza have gone 5W 6D 2L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Monza away?
Ascoli's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.17 PPG; Monza away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Monza in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ascoli
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 0, Monza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2022, when Monza 2-0 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 50%, Monza 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ascoli and 33% for Monza.
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 33% of games; Monza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ascoli's games and 67% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ascoli vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 33% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Monza tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Monza in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 14, as Ascoli and Monza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.03 xG and Monza 0.93 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 1.26 against Monza attack 0.63 / defence 1.16, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 36% | Draw 33% | Monza 31%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 46%, Monza 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.62 PPG, Monza 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.