Ascoli 1-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca plays host to Ascoli versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 8 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ascoli have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli's home record at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 0D 5L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Modena have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.64 in Ascoli's favour (1.50 vs 0.86) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Ascoli half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 71% versus Modena 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 43% | Modena 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.31 xG and Modena 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.905 / defence 0.991 | Modena attack 0.639 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.108. Data: 45 Ascoli games / 7 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 51% | Draw 29% | Modena 20%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Modena 5.00. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 40% | Modena 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 51% | Draw 29% | Modena 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Ascoli 1.31 / Modena 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.905 / def 0.991 | Modena attack 0.639 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Modena xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Modena kick off?
Ascoli vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Modena?
Ascoli 1 - 2 Modena.
Where is Ascoli vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Modena part of?
Ascoli vs Modena is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 51% chance of winning, Modena a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ascoli and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Modena in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Modena (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.91) and Modena's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.64x) against Ascoli's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.47
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.01
0.70
Modena xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.70 for Modena, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ascoli's recent record stands at 2W 3D 2L from 7 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 5L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Modena heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.29 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Modena's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Modena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ascoli are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Modena in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Modena have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Modena away?
Ascoli's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 0.67 PPG; Modena away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 67%, Modena 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ascoli and 33% for Modena.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 33% of games; Modena in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ascoli's recent matches and 33% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 33% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Modena tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Modena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Ascoli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Ascoli 1-2 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.31 xG and Modena 0.70 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Modena outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Modena attack 0.64 / defence 1.15, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 51% | Draw 29% | Modena 20%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 43%, Modena 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Modena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.