Ascoli 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Brescia at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ascoli face Brescia.

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Fixture Analysis

Ascoli welcome Brescia to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B (matchday 27). Kick-off is Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 17:15 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ascoli stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Ascoli at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Brescia have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Brescia have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Ascoli) versus 1.50 (Brescia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Ascoli have won 1, Brescia 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Ascoli 1–1 Brescia — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Ascoli trading profile (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Brescia trading profile (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 38% | Brescia 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.93 xG and Brescia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.779 / defence 0.966 | Brescia attack 0.875 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.208. Ascoli's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Ascoli's last 64 games and Brescia's last 64.

Result probabilities: Ascoli 30% | Draw 34% | Brescia 35%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.30 | Draw 2.91 | Brescia 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Ascoli's last 10 home games and Brescia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ascoli 50% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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