Ascoli 0-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round as Ascoli welcome Benevento to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Ascoli's home record at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Benevento away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ascoli, 1 for Benevento and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Ascoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Benevento in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 50% versus Benevento 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ascoli 40% | Benevento 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.26 xG and Benevento 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 1.043 / defence 0.917 | Benevento attack 0.986 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.077. Data: 38 Ascoli games / 38 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 42% | Draw 30% | Benevento 28%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 40% | Benevento 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Friday 13 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 42% | Draw 30% | Benevento 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Ascoli 1.26 / Benevento 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 1.043 / def 0.917 | Benevento attack 0.986 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Benevento xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Benevento kick off?
Ascoli vs Benevento kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 13 May 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Benevento?
Ascoli 0 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Ascoli vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Benevento part of?
Ascoli vs Benevento is a Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 42% chance of winning, Benevento a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ascoli and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Benevento?
Record (2 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Benevento in?
Ascoli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Benevento (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.32
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.23
0.97
Benevento xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
8%
12.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.97 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli's recent record stands at 19W 8D 11L from 38 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 11L across 38 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.71 PPG, Benevento on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 8W 6D 5L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benevento's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.63 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Benevento in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while Benevento have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Benevento away?
Ascoli's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.58 PPG; Benevento away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Benevento in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ascoli's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ascoli
2
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Benevento?
From 5 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Benevento have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Ascoli 0-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 47%, Benevento 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Ascoli and 26% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Benevento in 32%; Ascoli have failed to score in 26% of games; Benevento in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ascoli's recent matches and 37% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Ascoli's recent games and 26% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Benevento tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Benevento in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Benevento defy the odds to beat Ascoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Ascoli 0-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.26 xG and Benevento 0.97 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Benevento attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 42% | Draw 30% | Benevento 28%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Benevento win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 40%, Benevento 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.71 PPG, Benevento 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Benevento (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.