Ascoli 3-0 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alessandria at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Alessandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ascoli host Alessandria at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season.
Alessandria — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alessandria have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ascoli) versus 1.20 (Alessandria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ascoli, 0 for Alessandria and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Ascoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Alessandria in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 61% versus Alessandria 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 44% | Alessandria 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.01 xG and Alessandria 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.766 / defence 1.229 | Alessandria attack 0.910 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.176. Ascoli's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.398 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Ascoli games / 23 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 26% | Draw 33% | Alessandria 41%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Alessandria 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alessandria as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alessandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ascoli 60% | Alessandria 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 26% | Draw 33% | Alessandria 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Ascoli 1.01 / Alessandria 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.766 / def 1.229 | Alessandria attack 0.910 / def 1.398 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Alessandria xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Alessandria kick off?
Ascoli vs Alessandria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Alessandria?
Ascoli 3 - 0 Alessandria.
Where is Ascoli vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Alessandria part of?
Ascoli vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 26% chance of winning, Alessandria a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ascoli and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Alessandria?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 1W | Draws 0 | Alessandria 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Alessandria in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Alessandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.77x the league average against Alessandria's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alessandria's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
26%
3.87
33%
3.00
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.33
1.31
Alessandria xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.31 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli's recent record stands at 10W 6D 7L from 23 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alessandria, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 12L across 23 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alessandria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ascoli have managed 2W 4D 5L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Alessandria's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.09 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ascoli have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Alessandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Alessandria away?
Ascoli's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 0.91 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ascoli
0
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 2, Alessandria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Ascoli 3-0 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Alessandria?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 54%, Alessandria 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Ascoli) and 46% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 36% of games; Alessandria in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ascoli's recent matches and 54% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Ascoli's recent games and 46% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Alessandria tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ascoli run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Alessandria 3-0 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.01 xG and Alessandria 1.31 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ascoli beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alessandria landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.77 / defence 1.23 against Alessandria attack 0.91 / defence 1.40, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 26% | Draw 33% | Alessandria 41%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 44%, Alessandria 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Alessandria's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Alessandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.