Arezzo vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arezzo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Pisa travel to Citta di Arezzo to take on Arezzo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Arezzo have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 outings — a 1.43 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arezzo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arezzo at Citta di Arezzo this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.43 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Citta di Arezzo this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.43 PPG (Arezzo) versus 1.30 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Arezzo in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Pisa in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arezzo 57% versus Pisa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Arezzo 71% | Pisa 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arezzo 0.92 xG and Pisa 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arezzo attack 0.749 / defence 1.358 | Pisa attack 1.266 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Arezzo's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pisa have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Arezzo games / 7 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arezzo 14% | Draw 22% | Pisa 65%. Fair-value odds: Arezzo 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Pisa 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arezzo 67% | Pisa 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arezzo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Citta di Arezzo • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arezzo 14% | Draw 22% | Pisa 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Arezzo 0.92 / Pisa 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Arezzo attack 0.749 / def 1.358 | Pisa attack 1.266 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Pisa (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Arezzo xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Pisa xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arezzo vs Pisa kick off?
Arezzo vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Citta di Arezzo.
Where is Arezzo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Citta di Arezzo.
What competition is Arezzo vs Pisa part of?
Arezzo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Arezzo a 14% chance of winning, Pisa a 65% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Arezzo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Arezzo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arezzo and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arezzo and Pisa in?
Arezzo (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arezzo's attack rating (0.75) and Pisa's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Arezzo's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
14%
7.37
22%
4.61
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Arezzo xG
Total xG
3.09
2.17
Pisa xG
7.37
14%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
11%
8.75
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
2%
64.52
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.9 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arezzo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Arezzo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Arezzo and 2.17 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Arezzo vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Arezzo have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 3W 1D 3L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Arezzo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arezzo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Arezzo have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Pisa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.86 PPG overall record — Pisa travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arezzo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 2.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arezzo
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arezzo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Arezzo have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Pisa have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arezzo at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arezzo at home: 0.33 PPG; Pisa away: 2.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arezzo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arezzo 67%, Pisa 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Arezzo and 100% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arezzo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pisa in 67%; Arezzo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arezzo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arezzo play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Arezzo's recent matches and 33% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arezzo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Arezzo's matches and 100% of Pisa's.
Do Arezzo and Pisa tend to score early?
Arezzo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.