Alessandria 1-0 Crotone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crotone at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alessandria vs Crotone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alessandria host Crotone at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Alessandria — All Games: 1W 1D 6L from 8 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 2.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Alessandria are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crotone stand at 1W 4D 3L from 8 Serie B matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crotone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Crotone have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alessandria at 0.50 PPG versus Crotone's 0.88. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alessandria register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Crotone in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Alessandria in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Crotone in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alessandria 62% and Crotone 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alessandria 50% | Crotone 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.24 xG and Crotone 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.857 / defence 1.317 | Crotone attack 0.865 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.256. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Alessandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Alessandria games / 8 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 31% | Draw 30% | Crotone 39%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Crotone 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crotone at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crotone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 67% | Crotone 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 31% | Draw 30% | Crotone 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Alessandria 1.24 / Crotone 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.857 / def 1.317 | Crotone attack 0.865 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.041 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Crotone (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Crotone xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Crotone kick off?
Alessandria vs Crotone kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Crotone?
Alessandria 1 - 0 Crotone.
Where is Alessandria vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Crotone part of?
Alessandria vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 31% chance of winning, Crotone a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crotone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Alessandria and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Crotone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alessandria and Crotone in?
Alessandria (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Crotone (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alessandria's attack rating (0.86) and Crotone's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crotone's attack versus Alessandria's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crotone Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.36
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.67
1.43
Crotone xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
7%
13.58
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.43 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Alessandria have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 1D 6L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crotone's form line: 1W 4D 3L from 8 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Crotone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alessandria on 0.50 PPG, Crotone on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alessandria have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Alessandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Crotone have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crotone's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alessandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alessandria are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.38 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alessandria have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Crotone in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Crotone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Crotone in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Crotone have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Crotone away?
Alessandria's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.00 PPG; Crotone away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alessandria
1
Draws
0
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 1, Crotone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Crotone 0-0 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Crotone?
Alessandria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Alessandria at 67%, Crotone at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Alessandria and 67% for Crotone. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Crotone in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Crotone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Alessandria's games and 67% of Crotone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alessandria vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Alessandria's matches and 67% of Crotone's.
Do Alessandria and Crotone tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Crotone in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alessandria defy the odds to beat Crotone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria beat Crotone 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.24 xG and Crotone 1.43 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crotone landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.86 / defence 1.32 against Crotone attack 0.86 / defence 1.39, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 31% | Draw 30% | Crotone 39%, with Crotone to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Alessandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 50%, Crotone 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Crotone's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alessandria 0.50 PPG, Crotone 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alessandria win broke the near-deadlock. Alessandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Crotone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.