Alessandria 1-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alessandria at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alessandria vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Alessandria welcome Como to Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 March 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Alessandria have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Como stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Como have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alessandria 0.90 PPG, Como 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Alessandria, 1 for Como and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Como winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Alessandria trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Como trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 50% versus Como 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alessandria 38% | Como 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.31 xG and Como 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.857 / defence 1.154 | Como attack 0.897 / defence 1.492. League average goals — home 1.028 / away 1.128. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.492 — this is suppressing Alessandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Alessandria games / 26 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 38% | Draw 32% | Como 31%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Como 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alessandria at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alessandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 40% | Como 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Mar 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 38% | Draw 32% | Como 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Alessandria 1.31 / Como 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.857 / def 1.154 | Como attack 0.897 / def 1.492 | league avg home 1.028 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Como xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Como kick off?
Alessandria vs Como kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 1 March 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Como?
Alessandria 1 - 1 Como.
Where is Alessandria vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Como part of?
Alessandria vs Como is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 38% chance of winning, Como a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Como?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Alessandria and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Alessandria 0W | Draws 0 | Como 1W.
What form are Alessandria and Como in?
Alessandria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Como (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alessandria's attack rating (0.86) and Como's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Alessandria's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
38%
2.66
32%
3.15
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.48
1.17
Como xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.17 for Como, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alessandria come into this having played 26 games, going 6W 5D 15L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (8W 11D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alessandria's home form reads 4W 3D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.31 points per game from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Alessandria are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.27 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Como in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 6W 5D 15L in their last 26 games (0.88 PPG), while Como have gone 8W 11D 7L in their last 26 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.15 PPG; Como away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alessandria and Como runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
1
Draws
1
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Como?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Como have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Como last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2022, when Alessandria 1-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 46%, Como 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Alessandria) and 54% (Como).
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Alessandria's games and 69% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alessandria vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Alessandria's recent games and 54% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Como tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Como in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alessandria and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria and Como finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.31 xG and Como 1.17 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Como attack 0.90 / defence 1.49, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 38% | Draw 32% | Como 31%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 38%, Como 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.