Venezia 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Empoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 4 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Venezia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Empoli (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Venezia, 0.90 for Empoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Venezia, 0 for Empoli and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 57% versus Empoli 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 66% | Empoli 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.28 xG and Empoli 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.889 / defence 1.218 | Empoli attack 1.058 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.351. Data: 18 Venezia games / 56 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 28% | Draw 24% | Empoli 48%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Empoli 2.08. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 50% | Empoli 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 28% | Draw 24% | Empoli 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Venezia 1.28 / Empoli 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.889 / def 1.218 | Empoli attack 1.058 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Empoli (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Empoli xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Empoli kick off?
Venezia vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Empoli?
Venezia 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Venezia vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Empoli part of?
Venezia vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 28% chance of winning, Empoli a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Venezia and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Venezia and Empoli in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Empoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.89) and Empoli's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (1.06x) against Venezia's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
28%
3.55
24%
4.25
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.02
1.74
Empoli xG
3.55
28%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
5%
20.19
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Venezia and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Venezia and 1.74 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia come into this having played 56 games, going 25W 10D 21L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.98 PPG from 56 outings (13W 16D 27L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Venezia's home form reads 17W 3D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.82 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Empoli in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 10D 21L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 16D 27L in their last 56 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Empoli away?
Venezia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.00 PPG; Empoli away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Venezia
4
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Empoli have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Empoli?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Empoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Venezia) and 41% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Venezia's games and 52% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Venezia's recent games and 41% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Empoli tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Empoli in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 19, as Venezia and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.28 xG and Empoli 1.74 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.89 / defence 1.22 against Empoli attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 28% | Draw 24% | Empoli 48%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 66%, Empoli 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.