Udinese 1-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 26 as Udinese welcome Lazio to Dacia Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 3W 4D 3L at Dacia Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Lazio have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Udinese have won 0, Lazio 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 8.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2021, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lazio trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Lazio 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Lazio 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.36 xG and Lazio 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.999 / defence 1.280 | Lazio attack 1.031 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.419. Lazio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Udinese games / 25 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Lazio 2.08. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 50% | Lazio 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Udinese 1.36 / Lazio 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.999 / def 1.280 | Lazio attack 1.031 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Lazio (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Lazio xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Lazio kick off?
Udinese vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Lazio?
Udinese 1 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Udinese vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Lazio part of?
Udinese vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 26% chance of winning, Lazio a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Udinese and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 1 | Lazio 0W.
What form are Udinese and Lazio in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Lazio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.00) and Lazio's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
26%
3.84
26%
3.78
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.23
1.87
Lazio xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
15%
6.50
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
4%
24.98
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Udinese and 1.87 for Lazio, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 5W 9D 9L from 23 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 7L across 23 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 3W 5D 3L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.87 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Lazio in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 5W 9D 9L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while Lazio have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Lazio away?
Udinese's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.27 PPG; Lazio away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Lazio runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Udinese's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
6
Draws
2
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Lazio have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Lazio 3-3 Udinese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 54%, Lazio 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Udinese and 91% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Udinese's games and 64% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Udinese's matches and 91% of Lazio's.
Do Udinese and Lazio tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lazio in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Lazio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Lazio finished level at 1-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.36 xG and Lazio 1.87 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lazio landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.00 / defence 1.28 against Lazio attack 1.03 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 26% | Draw 26% | Lazio 48%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 48%, Lazio 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.