Udinese 2-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 2 as Udinese welcome Lazio to Bluenergy Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 0W 5D 5L at Bluenergy Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bluenergy Stadium this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Lazio have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Udinese have won 1, Lazio 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Lazio trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 59% versus Lazio 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 36% | Lazio 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.24 xG and Lazio 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.936 / defence 1.059 | Lazio attack 1.054 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.185. Data: 39 Udinese games / 39 Lazio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Udinese 32% | Draw 33% | Lazio 35%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.12 | Draw 3.03 | Lazio 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 80% | Lazio 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 32% | Draw 33% | Lazio 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Udinese 1.24 / Lazio 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.936 / def 1.059 | Lazio attack 1.054 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Lazio (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Lazio xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Lazio kick off?
Udinese vs Lazio kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Lazio?
Udinese 2 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Udinese vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Lazio part of?
Udinese vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 32% chance of winning, Lazio a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Udinese and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
Record (6 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 3 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Udinese and Lazio in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Lazio (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.94) and Lazio's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
32%
3.15
33%
3.04
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.57
1.32
Lazio xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
11.83
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Udinese and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Udinese and 1.32 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 6W 20D 13L from 39 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 13L across 39 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 1W 11D 7L from 19 games — 0.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 8W 3D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.33 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Lazio in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 6W 20D 13L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Lazio have gone 19W 7D 13L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 0.74 PPG; Lazio away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Udinese or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Lazio in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Lazio runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Udinese's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
6
Draws
2
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Lazio have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Lazio 3-3 Udinese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 32% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Udinese at 68%, Lazio at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Udinese) and 53% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Udinese's games and 63% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Udinese's recent games and 53% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Lazio tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Lazio in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Lazio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Lazio 2-1 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.24 xG and Lazio 1.32 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Lazio attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 32% | Draw 33% | Lazio 35%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 36%, Lazio 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.