Udinese vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Genoa travel to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 May 2027, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Udinese are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Udinese's 20% and Genoa's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Genoa, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Udinese.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Udinese winning.
It is worth noting that Genoa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Genoa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 45% | Genoa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.04 xG and Genoa 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.942 / defence 0.892 | Genoa attack 0.757 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Udinese games / 40 Genoa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Genoa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Genoa lead the H2H ledger, but Udinese carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 20% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Udinese 1.04 / Genoa 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.942 / def 0.892 | Genoa attack 0.757 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Udinese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Genoa xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Genoa kick off?
Udinese vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 May 2027 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Genoa part of?
Udinese vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 40% chance of winning, Genoa a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Udinese and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Genoa?
Record (8 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 3 | Genoa 4W.
What form are Udinese and Genoa in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Udinese's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
40%
2.52
32%
3.14
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Udinese xG
Total xG
1.87
0.83
Genoa xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Udinese and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Udinese and 0.83 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 9D 16L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (10W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.35 PPG, Genoa on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Genoa in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Genoa away?
Udinese's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.20 PPG; Genoa away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Genoa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 40%, Genoa 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Udinese) and 45% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 35% of games; Genoa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Udinese's recent matches and 55% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Udinese's recent games and 45% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Genoa tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Genoa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.