Udinese 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dacia Arena plays host to Udinese versus Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 4W 3D 3L at Dacia Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fiorentina (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fiorentina have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Udinese, 1.40 for Fiorentina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Udinese register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Fiorentina in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Udinese, 1 for Fiorentina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2022, ended 4–0 with Udinese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 61% versus Fiorentina 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 56% | Fiorentina 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.23 xG and Fiorentina 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.952 / defence 0.983 | Fiorentina attack 0.873 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.091. Data: 41 Udinese games / 41 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 35% | Fiorentina 25%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Fiorentina 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 70% | Fiorentina 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 40% | Draw 35% | Fiorentina 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Udinese 1.23 / Fiorentina 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.952 / def 0.983 | Fiorentina attack 0.873 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Udinese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fiorentina xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Fiorentina kick off?
Udinese vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Udinese 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Udinese vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Fiorentina part of?
Udinese vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 40% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Udinese and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
Record (2 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Udinese's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.87x) against Udinese's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
40%
2.52
35%
2.82
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.17
0.94
Fiorentina xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
7%
13.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Udinese and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Udinese and 0.94 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Udinese's recent record stands at 12W 15D 14L from 41 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 14L across 41 games — 1.63 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Udinese against 1.63 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 6W 8D 6L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.51 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 12W 15D 14L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 20W 7D 14L in their last 41 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Fiorentina away?
Udinese's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.30 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Udinese or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Udinese
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Udinese, 65% for Fiorentina — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 55% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Udinese's games and 65% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 55% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.23 xG and Fiorentina 0.94 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Fiorentina attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 40% | Draw 35% | Fiorentina 25%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 56%, Fiorentina 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.24 PPG, Fiorentina 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.