Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli plays host to Udinese versus Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 2 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 4W 2D 4L at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fiorentina (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fiorentina have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Udinese, 1.50 for Fiorentina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Udinese, 5 for Fiorentina and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 1–5 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Udinese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Fiorentina 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Fiorentina 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.27 xG and Fiorentina 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.892 / defence 1.063 | Fiorentina attack 0.987 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.192. Data: 64 Udinese games / 64 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 37% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 36%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 50% | Fiorentina 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Monday 2 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 37% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Udinese 1.27 / Fiorentina 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.892 / def 1.063 | Fiorentina attack 0.987 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Udinese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Fiorentina xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Fiorentina kick off?
Udinese vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 2 March 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Udinese 3 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Udinese vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Fiorentina part of?
Udinese vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 37% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
Record (9 meetings): Udinese 3W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 5W.
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Udinese's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.99x) against Udinese's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.72
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.52
1.25
Fiorentina xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Udinese and 1.25 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Udinese's recent record stands at 21W 13D 30L from 64 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 23L across 64 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Udinese against 1.39 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 11W 7D 14L from 32 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 9W 9D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.41 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 61%.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 21W 13D 30L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 24W 17D 23L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Fiorentina away?
Udinese's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.25 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Udinese
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Udinese 3-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 47%, Fiorentina 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Udinese) and 59% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Udinese have failed to score in 28% of games; Fiorentina in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Udinese's recent matches and 59% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Udinese's recent games and 59% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Fiorentina 3-0 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.27 xG and Fiorentina 1.25 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Fiorentina attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 37% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 36%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Fiorentina 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.19 PPG, Fiorentina 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.