Udinese 4-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Empoli at Dacia Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Udinese's home record at Dacia Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Empoli have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Udinese carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Udinese have won 0, Empoli 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Udinese 60% and Empoli 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Empoli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.47 xG and Empoli 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.264 / defence 1.210 | Empoli attack 0.649 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.240. Udinese carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Udinese games / 32 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 29% | Empoli 24%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Empoli 4.17. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 80% | Empoli 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 29% | Empoli 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Udinese 1.47 / Empoli 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.264 / def 1.210 | Empoli attack 0.649 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Udinese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Empoli xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Empoli kick off?
Udinese vs Empoli kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Empoli?
Udinese 4 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Udinese vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Empoli part of?
Udinese vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 47% chance of winning, Empoli a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Udinese and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Udinese and Empoli in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Empoli (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.26) and Empoli's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.43
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.44
0.97
Empoli xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Udinese and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Udinese and 0.97 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 8W 12D 10L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.20 PPG, Empoli on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (5W 7D 3L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 4W 6D 5L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.30 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Empoli in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Empoli in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Empoli have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Empoli away?
Udinese's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.47 PPG; Empoli away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Empoli runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Udinese won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Udinese
4
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Empoli have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Udinese 3-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Empoli?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 67%, Empoli 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Udinese) and 33% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Udinese's games and 47% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Udinese's recent games and 33% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Empoli tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Empoli in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Empoli 4-1 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.47 xG and Empoli 0.97 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.26 / defence 1.21 against Empoli attack 0.65 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 47% | Draw 29% | Empoli 24%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Empoli 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.20 PPG, Empoli 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.