Udinese 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Udinese and Cremonese meet at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli this season.
Cremonese (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Udinese's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Udinese have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cremonese in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Udinese 1W, Cremonese 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cremonese — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 50% versus Cremonese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 49% | Cremonese 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.43 xG and Cremonese 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.878 / defence 0.854 | Cremonese attack 0.653 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.145. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Udinese games / 36 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 56% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 17%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 30% | Cremonese 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 56% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 36% | xG Udinese 1.43 / Cremonese 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.878 / def 0.854 | Cremonese attack 0.653 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Udinese (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Cremonese xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Cremonese kick off?
Udinese vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Cremonese?
Udinese 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Udinese vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Cremonese part of?
Udinese vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 56% chance of winning, Cremonese a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Udinese and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Udinese and Cremonese in?
Udinese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.65x) against Udinese's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.65
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.06
0.64
Cremonese xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 11.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Udinese and 0.64 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 74 games, going 26W 16D 32L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.26 PPG from 74 outings (23W 24D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Udinese against 1.26 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 13W 8D 16L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.27 points per game from 37 outings (13W 8D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 26W 16D 32L in their last 74 games (1.27 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 23W 24D 27L in their last 74 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Cremonese away?
Udinese's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.27 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Udinese
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 40%, Cremonese 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Udinese) and 57% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Udinese have failed to score in 32% of games; Cremonese in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Udinese's recent matches and 49% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Udinese's recent games and 57% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Cremonese tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Udinese 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Udinese 0-1 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.43 xG and Cremonese 0.64 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Udinese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Cremonese attack 0.65 / defence 1.34, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 56% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 17%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 49%, Cremonese 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.27 PPG, Cremonese 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.