Torino 1-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 37%, yet in-form Torino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Torino vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Torino have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Torino are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Torino, 1 for Udinese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Torino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 53% versus Udinese 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 41% | Udinese 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.90 xG and Udinese 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.773 / defence 0.908 | Udinese attack 0.925 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.188. Torino's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Torino games / 58 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 32% | Draw 32% | Udinese 37%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Udinese 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Torino (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Torino 30% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 32% | Draw 32% | Udinese 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Torino 0.90 / Udinese 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.773 / def 0.908 | Udinese attack 0.925 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Udinese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Udinese xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Udinese kick off?
Torino vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Udinese?
Torino 1 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Torino vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Udinese part of?
Torino vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 32% chance of winning, Udinese a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Torino and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
Record (3 meetings): Torino 2W | Draws 0 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Torino and Udinese in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Udinese (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Torino's attack rating (0.77) and Udinese's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
32%
3.16
32%
3.15
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Torino xG
Total xG
1.90
1.00
Udinese xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 14.9 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Torino and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Torino and 1.00 for Udinese, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Torino have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 20W 17D 21L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 18W 22D 18L from 58 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.33 PPG, Udinese on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.46 PPG from 28 outings (11W 8D 9L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 8W 10D 10L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.53 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Udinese in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 20W 17D 21L in their last 58 games (1.33 PPG), while Udinese have gone 18W 22D 18L in their last 58 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Udinese away?
Torino's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.46 PPG; Udinese away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Udinese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Torino's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Torino
2
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 5, Udinese have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Udinese 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Udinese?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 50%, Udinese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Torino) and 57% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Torino have failed to score in 29% of games; Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Torino's recent matches and 57% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Torino's recent games and 57% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Udinese tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Udinese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Udinese 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.90 xG and Udinese 1.00 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Udinese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.77 / defence 0.91 against Udinese attack 0.93 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 32% | Draw 32% | Udinese 37%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 41%, Udinese 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.33 PPG, Udinese 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.