Torino 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Juventus (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Torino face Juventus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 January 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
Juventus — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's away record: 4W 6D 0L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juventus are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Juventus, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Torino.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Juventus winning.
It is worth noting that Juventus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Torino in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Juventus in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 36% versus Juventus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Torino 34% | Juventus 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 0.71 xG and Juventus 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.637 / defence 0.833 | Juventus attack 1.158 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.325. Torino's attack strength of 0.637 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Torino games / 56 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 20% | Draw 32% | Juventus 49%. Fair-value odds: Torino 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Juventus 2.04. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Torino 40% | Juventus 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 20% | Draw 32% | Juventus 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Torino 0.71 / Juventus 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.637 / def 0.833 | Juventus attack 1.158 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Juventus (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Juventus xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Juventus kick off?
Torino vs Juventus kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Juventus?
Torino 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Torino vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Juventus part of?
Torino vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 20% chance of winning, Juventus a 49% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Torino and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Juventus?
Record (7 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 2 | Juventus 5W.
What form are Torino and Juventus in?
Torino (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Juventus (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Torino's attack at 0.64x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
20%
5.12
32%
3.14
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Torino xG
Total xG
1.99
1.28
Juventus xG
5.12
20%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
5%
18.38
24%
4.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 17.4 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Torino and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Torino and 1.28 for Juventus, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Torino's recent record stands at 18W 19D 19L from 56 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 26W 25D 5L across 56 games — 1.84 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Torino heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Torino have managed 10W 11D 6L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 12W 11D 4L across 27 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.50 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Juventus in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Juventus in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 18W 19D 19L in their last 56 games (1.30 PPG), while Juventus have gone 26W 25D 5L in their last 56 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.52 PPG; Juventus away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Torino or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Juventus in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Juventus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Torino's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Torino
5
Draws
5
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 0, Juventus have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Torino 2-2 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 26%, Juventus 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Torino) and 52% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Juventus in 44%; Torino have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Torino's recent matches and 48% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Torino's recent games and 52% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Juventus tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Juventus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino and Juventus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 0.71 xG and Juventus 1.28 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.64 / defence 0.83 against Juventus attack 1.16 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 20% | Draw 32% | Juventus 49%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 34%, Juventus 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.