Torino 2-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Torino face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Torino and Inter meet at Stadio Olimpico di Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico di Torino: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Inter have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Inter are 0.90 PPG clear of Torino in recent Serie A fixtures (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, Inter have the stronger historical record — 8 wins to Torino's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 0–5 with Inter winning.
It is worth noting that Inter have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Inter half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 46% versus Inter 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 42% | Inter 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.20 xG and Inter 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.147 / defence 1.150 | Inter attack 1.443 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.132. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.443 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Torino games / 71 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 24% | Draw 23% | Inter 53%. Fair-value odds: Torino 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Inter 1.89. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Torino 60% | Inter 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 24% | Draw 23% | Inter 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Torino 1.20 / Inter 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.147 / def 1.150 | Inter attack 1.443 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Inter (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Inter xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Inter kick off?
Torino vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Inter?
Torino 2 - 2 Inter.
Where is Torino vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Inter part of?
Torino vs Inter is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 24% chance of winning, Inter a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Torino and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Inter?
Record (9 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 8W.
What form are Torino and Inter in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Inter (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Torino's attack rating (1.15) and Inter's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.44x) against Torino's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
24%
4.12
23%
4.44
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Torino xG
Total xG
3.08
1.88
Inter xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
15%
6.55
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
4%
26.95
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Torino and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Torino and 1.88 for Inter, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Torino come into this having played 71 games, going 21W 21D 29L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.24 PPG from 71 outings (49W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.06 PPG clear of Torino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Torino's home form reads 13W 9D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter have taken 2.14 points per game from 35 outings (23W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.21 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Inter in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 21W 21D 29L in their last 71 games (1.18 PPG), while Inter have gone 49W 12D 10L in their last 71 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.37 PPG; Inter away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Torino or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 5-0 on 25 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Torino
2
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 0, Inter have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Torino 2-2 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 49%, Inter 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Torino) and 43% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Inter in 54%; Torino have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Torino's recent matches and 34% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Torino's recent games and 43% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Inter tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Inter in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Torino and Inter share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Regular Season - 34, as Torino and Inter drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.20 xG and Inter 1.88 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 1.15 / defence 1.15 against Inter attack 1.44 / defence 0.85, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 24% | Draw 23% | Inter 53%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 42%, Inter 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.