Torino 1-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 38%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Torino vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Torino welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Torino — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bologna have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bologna's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Torino's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Torino, 1 for Bologna and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Torino in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 53% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 42% | Bologna 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.32 xG and Bologna 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.872 / defence 0.948 | Bologna attack 1.154 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.138. Data: 62 Torino games / 62 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 35%. Fair-value odds: Torino 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Torino at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Torino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 40% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Torino 1.32 / Bologna 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.872 / def 0.948 | Bologna attack 1.154 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Torino (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bologna xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Bologna kick off?
Torino vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Bologna?
Torino 1 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Torino vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Bologna part of?
Torino vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 38% chance of winning, Bologna a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Torino and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Torino 1W | Draws 1 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Torino and Bologna in?
Torino (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Bologna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Torino's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.76
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Torino xG
Total xG
2.56
1.25
Bologna xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Torino and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Torino and 1.25 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Torino come into this having played 62 games, going 21W 18D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.31 PPG from 62 outings (22W 15D 25L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.31 PPG, Bologna on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Torino's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.03 points per game from 30 outings (8W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Torino are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.21 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Bologna in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Bologna have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Bologna away?
Torino's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.50 PPG; Bologna away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Torino and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Torino's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Torino
3
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 2, Bologna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Torino 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 50%, Bologna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Torino) and 63% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Torino have failed to score in 27% of games; Bologna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Torino's games and 60% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torino vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Torino's matches and 63% of Bologna's.
Do Torino and Bologna tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bologna in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Torino edge out Bologna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Bologna 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.32 xG and Bologna 1.25 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bologna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Bologna attack 1.15 / defence 1.17, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 35%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 42%, Bologna 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bologna's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.31 PPG, Bologna 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.