Spezia 2-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Spezia take on Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as Spezia welcome Cagliari to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Spezia's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Picco this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Cagliari have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spezia at 1.30 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Spezia, 0 for Cagliari and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cagliari trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 57% and Cagliari 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 57% | Cagliari 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.96 xG and Cagliari 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.714 / defence 1.122 | Cagliari attack 0.727 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.354. Spezia's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Spezia games / 28 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 28% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 36%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Cagliari 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 60% | Cagliari 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 28% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Spezia 0.96 / Cagliari 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.714 / def 1.122 | Cagliari attack 0.727 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cagliari xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Cagliari kick off?
Spezia vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Cagliari?
Spezia 2 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Spezia vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Cagliari part of?
Spezia vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 28% chance of winning, Cagliari a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Spezia and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Spezia and Cagliari in?
Spezia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.71x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.54
36%
2.77
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.06
1.10
Cagliari xG
3.54
28%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.0 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Spezia and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Spezia and 1.10 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia's recent record stands at 7W 5D 16L from 28 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 13L across 28 games — 0.89 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.93 PPG, Cagliari on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 3W 3D 7L from 13 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.00 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 5W 10D 13L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Cagliari away?
Cagliari's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.92 PPG; Cagliari away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
0
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Cagliari have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Spezia 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Cagliari?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 62%, Cagliari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Spezia) and 54% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Spezia's recent matches and 46% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Spezia's recent games and 54% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Cagliari tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 31% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Cagliari 2-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.96 xG and Cagliari 1.10 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cagliari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.71 / defence 1.12 against Cagliari attack 0.73 / defence 1.21, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 28% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 36%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 57%, Cagliari 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Cagliari's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.93 PPG, Cagliari 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.