Sassuolo 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Parma at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sassuolo — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's home record at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Parma have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sassuolo 1.20 PPG, Parma 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Parma in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 54% versus Parma 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 52% | Parma 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.04 xG and Parma 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.907 / defence 1.191 | Parma attack 0.862 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.102. Data: 17 Sassuolo games / 54 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 33% | Draw 29% | Parma 38%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Parma 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 40% | Parma 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 33% | Draw 29% | Parma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Sassuolo 1.04 / Parma 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.907 / def 1.191 | Parma attack 0.862 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Parma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Parma xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Parma kick off?
Sassuolo vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Parma?
Sassuolo 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Sassuolo vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Parma part of?
Sassuolo vs Parma is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 33% chance of winning, Parma a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sassuolo and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Parma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Parma in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Parma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.41
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.17
1.13
Parma xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.13 for Parma, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sassuolo come into this having played 54 games, going 31W 10D 13L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 0.98 PPG from 54 outings (11W 20D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Parma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sassuolo's home form reads 16W 3D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 0.88 points per game from 26 outings (4W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sassuolo are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.02 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Parma in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 31W 10D 13L in their last 54 games (1.91 PPG), while Parma have gone 11W 20D 23L in their last 54 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Parma away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.96 PPG; Parma away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Parma in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sassuolo
1
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Parma?
From 2 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 0, Parma have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Parma 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Parma see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 46%, Parma 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sassuolo) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Parma in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 54% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sassuolo's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Parma tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Parma in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo and Parma finished level at 1-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.04 xG and Parma 1.13 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.91 / defence 1.19 against Parma attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 17/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 33% | Draw 29% | Parma 38%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 52%, Parma 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.