Sassuolo 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Sassuolo versus Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 25 January 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sassuolo have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 3W 2D 5L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Cremonese (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sassuolo, 2 for Cremonese and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 52% versus Cremonese 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 49% | Cremonese 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.18 xG and Cremonese 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.830 / defence 1.275 | Cremonese attack 0.666 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.152. Data: 21 Sassuolo games / 21 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 40% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 30%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 50% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 40% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Sassuolo 1.18 / Cremonese 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.830 / def 1.275 | Cremonese attack 0.666 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cremonese xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Cremonese kick off?
Sassuolo vs Cremonese kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Sassuolo 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Sassuolo vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Cremonese part of?
Sassuolo vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 40% chance of winning, Cremonese a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sassuolo and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cremonese?
Record (5 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Sassuolo and Cremonese in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 0.83x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.67x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.41
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.16
0.98
Cremonese xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
9%
10.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.98 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 31W 12D 16L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 21W 22D 16L from 59 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.44 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.90 PPG from 29 outings (17W 4D 8L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 11W 8D 10L from 29 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.42 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 31W 12D 16L in their last 59 games (1.78 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 22D 16L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Cremonese away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.90 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cremonese in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 1-4 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Sassuolo 1-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 48%, Cremonese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sassuolo) and 55% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cremonese in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 52% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sassuolo's recent games and 55% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and Cremonese tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Cremonese 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.18 xG and Cremonese 0.98 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.83 / defence 1.27 against Cremonese attack 0.67 / defence 1.19, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 40% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 30%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 49%, Cremonese 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.78 PPG, Cremonese 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.