Sassuolo 2-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Sassuolo have gone 2W 1D 3L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Cagliari have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's away record: 0W 1D 4L from 5 road trips in Serie A this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Sassuolo's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Cagliari — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 75% and Cagliari 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 75% | Cagliari 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.50 xG and Cagliari 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.816 / defence 1.094 | Cagliari attack 0.604 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.386. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Sassuolo games / 12 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 51% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 23%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Cagliari 4.35. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 50% | Cagliari 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 51% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Sassuolo 1.50 / Cagliari 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.816 / def 1.094 | Cagliari attack 0.604 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cagliari xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Cagliari kick off?
Sassuolo vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Sassuolo 2 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Sassuolo vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Cagliari part of?
Sassuolo vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 51% chance of winning, Cagliari a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sassuolo and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cagliari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Cagliari in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.60x) against Sassuolo's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.82
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.41
0.92
Cagliari xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
5%
19.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sassuolo and 0.92 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Sassuolo have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 4W 2D 6L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari's form line: 1W 3D 8L from 12 games, 0.50 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sassuolo are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sassuolo have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
On the road, Cagliari have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.08 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Cagliari in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Cagliari away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.20 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sassuolo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sassuolo
1
Draws
3
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Cagliari?
From 6 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 2, Cagliari have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Sassuolo 2-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 60%, Cagliari 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sassuolo and 60% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 40% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sassuolo's matches and 60% of Cagliari's.
Do Sassuolo and Cagliari tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Cagliari share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 13, as Sassuolo and Cagliari drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.50 xG and Cagliari 0.92 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Cagliari attack 0.60 / defence 1.41, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 51% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 23%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 75%, Cagliari 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.