Sassuolo 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore to face Sassuolo in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Monday 8 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Sassuolo (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 5W 2D 3L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bologna's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sassuolo's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bologna's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sassuolo lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 65% versus Bologna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 68% | Bologna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.54 xG and Bologna 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.018 / defence 0.933 | Bologna attack 1.021 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.145. Data: 71 Sassuolo games / 71 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 47% | Draw 26% | Bologna 27%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Bologna 3.70. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 47% | Draw 26% | Bologna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Sassuolo 1.54 / Bologna 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.018 / def 0.933 | Bologna attack 1.021 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Bologna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Bologna kick off?
Sassuolo vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 8 May 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Sassuolo 1 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Sassuolo vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Bologna part of?
Sassuolo vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 47% chance of winning, Bologna a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sassuolo and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 0 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sassuolo's attack at 1.02x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.02x) against Sassuolo's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.82
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.63
1.09
Bologna xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.09 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sassuolo come into this having played 71 games, going 25W 18D 28L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.28 PPG from 71 outings (24W 19D 28L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Sassuolo against 1.28 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sassuolo's home form reads 14W 9D 12L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.00 points per game from 35 outings (9W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sassuolo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sassuolo are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.21 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Bologna in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 25W 18D 28L in their last 71 games (1.31 PPG), while Bologna have gone 24W 19D 28L in their last 71 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Bologna away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.46 PPG; Bologna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 63%, Bologna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sassuolo and 63% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sassuolo's games and 60% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sassuolo's matches and 63% of Bologna's.
Do Sassuolo and Bologna tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bologna in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo and Bologna finished level at 1-1 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.54 xG and Bologna 1.09 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Bologna attack 1.02 / defence 1.19, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 47% | Draw 26% | Bologna 27%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 68%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sassuolo 1.31 PPG, Bologna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.