Sampdoria 0-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sampdoria's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fiorentina have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Fiorentina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2022, ended 4–1 with Sampdoria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 50% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 58% | Fiorentina 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.90 xG and Fiorentina 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.701 / defence 1.102 | Fiorentina attack 0.827 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.194. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.701 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Sampdoria games / 50 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 29% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 38%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Fiorentina 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 40% | Fiorentina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 29% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Sampdoria 0.90 / Fiorentina 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.701 / def 1.102 | Fiorentina attack 0.827 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Fiorentina xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Fiorentina kick off?
Sampdoria vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Fiorentina?
Sampdoria 0 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Sampdoria vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Fiorentina part of?
Sampdoria vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 29% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sampdoria and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Fiorentina?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Fiorentina in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.70) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.83x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
29%
3.47
33%
3.05
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
1.99
1.09
Fiorentina xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.09 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 11W 9D 30L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 22W 9D 19L from 50 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fiorentina are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 0.92 PPG from 25 outings (6W 5D 14L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 7W 5D 13L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.44 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 9D 30L in their last 50 games (0.84 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 22W 9D 19L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.92 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Fiorentina have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 5-0 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
0
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Fiorentina?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Fiorentina have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Fiorentina 5-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 60%, Fiorentina 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sampdoria) and 52% (Fiorentina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 28% of games; Fiorentina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sampdoria's games and 64% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sampdoria's matches and 52% of Fiorentina's.
Do Sampdoria and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Sampdoria 0-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.90 xG and Fiorentina 1.09 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Fiorentina outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against Fiorentina attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 29% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 38%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 58%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fiorentina's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.