Salernitana 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salernitana at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Arechi, Salernitana have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Udinese (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Salernitana's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Udinese's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Salernitana, 1 for Udinese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 3–2 with Salernitana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 59% versus Udinese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 56% | Udinese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.59 xG and Udinese 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 1.113 / defence 1.019 | Udinese attack 0.864 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.256. Data: 39 Salernitana games / 39 Udinese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Salernitana 49% | Draw 25% | Udinese 26%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 3.85. Salernitana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Salernitana at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salernitana if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Salernitana 40% | Udinese 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 49% | Draw 25% | Udinese 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Salernitana 1.59 / Udinese 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 1.113 / def 1.019 | Udinese attack 0.864 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Udinese xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Udinese kick off?
Salernitana vs Udinese kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 28 August 2023 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Udinese?
Salernitana 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Salernitana vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Udinese part of?
Salernitana vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 49% chance of winning, Udinese a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Salernitana and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Udinese?
Record (4 meetings): Salernitana 2W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Udinese in?
Salernitana (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Udinese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 1.11x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.86x) against Salernitana's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
49%
2.06
25%
4.00
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.70
1.11
Udinese xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.11 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Salernitana's recent record stands at 9W 16D 14L from 39 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 15L across 39 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Salernitana against 1.18 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 7W 6D 6L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 5W 4D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salernitana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Salernitana are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.21 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Udinese in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 9W 16D 14L in their last 39 games (1.10 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 13D 15L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Udinese away?
Salernitana's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.42 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 22 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salernitana
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Udinese?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 2, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Udinese 1-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Udinese?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 53%, Udinese 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Salernitana) and 47% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Salernitana's recent matches and 42% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Salernitana's matches and 47% of Udinese's.
Do Salernitana and Udinese tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Udinese in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salernitana and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 2, as Salernitana and Udinese drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.59 xG and Udinese 1.11 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against Udinese attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 49% | Draw 25% | Udinese 26%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 56%, Udinese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 1.10 PPG, Udinese 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.