Salernitana 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Salernitana face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Genoa travel to Stadio Arechi to take on Salernitana in Serie A (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Salernitana stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Salernitana's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Salernitana) versus 1.10 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Salernitana, 1 for Genoa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Salernitana 0–1 Genoa — a Genoa win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Salernitana trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Genoa trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 57% versus Genoa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 59% | Genoa 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Salernitana surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Genoa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.33 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.905 / defence 1.352 | Genoa attack 0.812 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.069. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.352 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genoa's projected output up. Data: built from Salernitana's last 58 games and Genoa's last 20.
Result probabilities: Salernitana 39% | Draw 29% | Genoa 32%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.55 | Draw 3.47 | Genoa 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salernitana as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salernitana 70% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 39% | Draw 29% | Genoa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Salernitana 1.33 / Genoa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.905 / def 1.352 | Genoa attack 0.812 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Genoa xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salernitana vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Salernitana vs Genoa kick off?
Salernitana vs Genoa kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Genoa?
Salernitana 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Salernitana vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Genoa part of?
Salernitana vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 39% chance of winning, Genoa a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Salernitana and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salernitana vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.91) and Genoa's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salernitana's last 58 games and Genoa's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.47
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.50
1.17
Genoa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salernitana vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.17 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salernitana come into this having played 58 games, going 11W 21D 26L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.66 PPG from 58 outings (26W 18D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salernitana's home form reads 8W 10D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 29 away games (11W 7D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.26 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Salernitana (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salernitana
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Salernitana vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Salernitana and Genoa in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 11W 21D 26L in their last 58 games (0.93 PPG), while Genoa have gone 26W 18D 14L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.17 PPG; Genoa away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Genoa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Salernitana's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Salernitana vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Genoa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Salernitana have won 1, Genoa have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 January 2024: Salernitana 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 59%, Genoa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Salernitana) and 48% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salernitana vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salernitana and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Salernitana's recent matches and 48% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Salernitana and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Salernitana's matches and 48% of Genoa's.
Do Salernitana and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Salernitana's recent matches and 62% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Salernitana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Salernitana 1-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.33 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.91 / defence 1.35 against Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 39% | Draw 29% | Genoa 32%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 59%, Genoa 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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