Salernitana 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Arechi to take on Salernitana. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 January 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's home record at Stadio Arechi: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Salernitana) versus 1.10 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Salernitana, 1 for Genoa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Salernitana trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Genoa trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 57% versus Genoa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 59% | Genoa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.33 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.905 / defence 1.352 | Genoa attack 0.812 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.069. Data: 58 Salernitana games / 20 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 39% | Draw 29% | Genoa 32%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salernitana as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 70% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 39% | Draw 29% | Genoa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Salernitana 1.33 / Genoa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.905 / def 1.352 | Genoa attack 0.812 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Genoa xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Genoa kick off?
Salernitana vs Genoa kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Genoa?
Salernitana 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Salernitana vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Genoa part of?
Salernitana vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 39% chance of winning, Genoa a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Salernitana and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Genoa?
Record (3 meetings): Salernitana 1W | Draws 1 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Genoa in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Genoa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.91) and Genoa's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.47
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.50
1.17
Genoa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.17 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salernitana come into this having played 58 games, going 11W 21D 26L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.66 PPG from 58 outings (26W 18D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salernitana's home form reads 8W 10D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.38 points per game from 29 outings (11W 7D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.26 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Genoa in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 11W 21D 26L in their last 58 games (0.93 PPG), while Genoa have gone 26W 18D 14L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 1.17 PPG; Genoa away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Genoa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Genoa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Salernitana's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Genoa?
From 4 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Genoa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 59%, Genoa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Salernitana) and 48% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Salernitana's recent matches and 48% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Salernitana's matches and 48% of Genoa's.
Do Salernitana and Genoa tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Genoa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Salernitana 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Salernitana 1-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.33 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.91 / defence 1.35 against Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 39% | Draw 29% | Genoa 32%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 59%, Genoa 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.