Salernitana 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 14:05 UTC.
Form
Salernitana (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salernitana have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Arechi — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Bologna have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Salernitana against 0.70 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Salernitana lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 46% versus Bologna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 62% | Bologna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.776 / defence 1.549 | Bologna attack 0.723 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.388. Salernitana's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Salernitana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Salernitana games / 25 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 27% | Draw 31% | Bologna 43%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Bologna 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 40% | Bologna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 27% | Draw 31% | Bologna 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Salernitana 1.20 / Bologna 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.776 / def 1.549 | Bologna attack 0.723 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Bologna (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Bologna xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Bologna kick off?
Salernitana vs Bologna kicked off at 14:05 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Bologna?
Salernitana 1 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Salernitana vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Bologna part of?
Salernitana vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 27% chance of winning, Bologna a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Salernitana and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 0 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Bologna in?
Salernitana (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Bologna (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.78) and Bologna's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.72x) against Salernitana's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
27%
3.76
31%
3.25
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.76
1.55
Bologna xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
6%
17.78
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.55 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana's recent record stands at 3W 5D 16L from 24 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 12L across 24 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 1W 3D 8L from 12 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.17 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Bologna in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 3W 5D 16L in their last 24 games (0.58 PPG), while Bologna have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.50 PPG; Bologna away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Bologna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Salernitana
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Bologna?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Bologna 3-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 33%, Bologna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Salernitana and 75% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 58% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Salernitana's recent matches and 58% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Salernitana's matches and 75% of Bologna's.
Do Salernitana and Bologna tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bologna in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salernitana and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 27, as Salernitana and Bologna drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.55 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.78 / defence 1.55 against Bologna attack 0.72 / defence 1.38, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 27% | Draw 31% | Bologna 43%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 62%, Bologna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.