Pisa 1-3 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Pisa welcome Sassuolo to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 1W 4D 5L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sassuolo — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pisa, 1 for Sassuolo and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Sassuolo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Sassuolo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.64 xG and Sassuolo 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.494 / defence 1.127 | Sassuolo attack 0.865 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.151. Pisa's attack strength of 0.494 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Pisa games / 22 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 21% | Draw 32% | Sassuolo 47%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Sassuolo 2.13. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 10% | Sassuolo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 21% | Draw 32% | Sassuolo 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG Pisa 0.64 / Sassuolo 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.494 / def 1.127 | Sassuolo attack 0.865 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sassuolo xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Sassuolo kick off?
Pisa vs Sassuolo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Pisa 1 - 3 Sassuolo.
Where is Pisa vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Sassuolo part of?
Pisa vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 21% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Pisa and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sassuolo?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are Pisa and Sassuolo in?
Pisa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (0.49x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.7%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
21%
4.79
32%
3.13
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.76
1.12
Sassuolo xG
4.79
21%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 19.3 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Pisa and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Pisa and 1.12 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 19D 18L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.80 PPG from 60 outings (32W 12D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.47 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 1.67 points per game from 30 outings (14W 8D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.70 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 19D 18L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 32W 12D 16L in their last 60 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Sassuolo away?
Pisa's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.67 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Pisa or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pisa's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sassuolo?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Sassuolo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Pisa 1-3 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Sassuolo?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 43%, Sassuolo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pisa) and 50% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sassuolo in 33%; Pisa have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pisa's recent matches and 57% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pisa's recent games and 50% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Pisa 1-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.64 xG and Sassuolo 1.12 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sassuolo outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.49 / defence 1.13 against Sassuolo attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 21% | Draw 32% | Sassuolo 47%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Sassuolo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.47 PPG, Sassuolo 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.