Parma 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Parma (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Venezia have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Parma, 0.60 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Parma 3W, Venezia 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 66% and Venezia 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 55% | Venezia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.75 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.057 / defence 1.318 | Venezia attack 0.716 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.302. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Parma games / 20 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 48% | Draw 27% | Venezia 25%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 4.00. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Parma 90% | Venezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 48% | Draw 27% | Venezia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Parma 1.75 / Venezia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.057 / def 1.318 | Venezia attack 0.716 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Parma (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Venezia xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Venezia kick off?
Parma vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Venezia?
Parma 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Parma vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Venezia part of?
Parma vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 48% chance of winning, Venezia a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Parma and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Venezia?
Record (5 meetings): Parma 3W | Draws 1 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Parma and Venezia in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Venezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.06x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.72x) against Parma's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.76
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Parma xG
Total xG
2.98
1.23
Venezia xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
4%
22.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Parma and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Parma and 1.23 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Parma have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 25W 20D 13L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 25W 11D 22L from 58 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Parma against 1.48 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.76 PPG from 29 outings (14W 9D 6L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 8W 7D 14L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Parma are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.47 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Venezia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 25W 20D 13L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 11D 22L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Venezia away?
Parma's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.76 PPG; Venezia away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Parma
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Parma 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Venezia?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 72%, Venezia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Parma) and 66% (Venezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia in 31%; Venezia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Parma's games and 48% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Parma vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Parma's matches and 66% of Venezia's.
Do Parma and Venezia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.75 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.06 / defence 1.32 against Venezia attack 0.72 / defence 1.26, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 48% | Draw 27% | Venezia 25%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 55%, Venezia 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.64 PPG, Venezia 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.