Parma 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Parma face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Parma welcome Fiorentina to Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 17 August 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Parma stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Parma have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Fiorentina have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Parma) versus 1.70 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 60% versus Fiorentina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 50% | Fiorentina 53%). Note also that Fiorentina surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Parma recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.19 xG and Fiorentina 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Fiorentina attack 1.066 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.223. Data: built from Parma's last 0 games and Fiorentina's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Parma 29% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 43%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.45 | Draw 3.58 | Fiorentina 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 70% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Parma 0 games, Fiorentina 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 29% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Parma 1.19 / Fiorentina 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Fiorentina attack 1.066 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Fiorentina xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Parma vs Fiorentina kick off?
Parma vs Fiorentina kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Fiorentina?
Parma 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Parma vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Fiorentina part of?
Parma vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 1) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 29% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Parma and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Parma vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.85) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 0 games and Fiorentina's last 38, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
29%
3.45
28%
3.58
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Parma xG
Total xG
2.69
1.50
Fiorentina xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Parma and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Parma and 1.50 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Parma have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 21W 13D 4L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Fiorentina's form line: 17W 9D 12L from 38 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fiorentina.
Venue Form
On home soil, Parma have posted 2.11 PPG from their last 19 home games (11W 7D 1L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 7W 4D 8L from their last 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.61 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Pre-Season
Fiorentina
Pre-Season
Parma (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Pre-Season
Fiorentina
Pre-Season
❓ Parma vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 21W 13D 4L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 17W 9D 12L in their last 38 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Fiorentina away?
Parma's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 2.11 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Parma or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Parma's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Parma
3
Draws
0
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Fiorentina?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 1, Fiorentina have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Fiorentina 0-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Fiorentina?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 63%, Fiorentina 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Parma) and 37% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fiorentina in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Fiorentina matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Parma's games and 47% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Parma and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Parma's recent games and 37% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Parma's recent matches and 84% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Fiorentina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.19 xG and Fiorentina 1.50 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Fiorentina attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 29% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 43%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 50%, Fiorentina 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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