Parma 1-3 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atalanta make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie A (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Parma (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Parma have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atalanta have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atalanta's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atalanta are 1.40 PPG clear of Parma over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Parma — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Atalanta — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Parma 66% and Atalanta 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 52% | Atalanta 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.00 xG and Atalanta 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.849 / defence 1.233 | Atalanta attack 1.220 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.330. Atalanta have an above-average attack rating of 1.220, which lifts their away xG to 2.00. Parma's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atalanta's projected output up. Data: built from Parma's last 12 games and Atalanta's last 50.
Result probabilities: Parma 18% | Draw 22% | Atalanta 60%. Fair-value odds: Parma 5.57 | Draw 4.57 | Atalanta 1.66. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (60%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Parma's last 10 home games and Atalanta's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 60% (last 10 home games) | Atalanta 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 18% | Draw 22% | Atalanta 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Parma 1.00 / Atalanta 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.849 / def 1.233 | Atalanta attack 1.220 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Parma xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Atalanta xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Atalanta FAQs
What time does Parma vs Atalanta kick off?
Parma vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Atalanta?
Parma 1 - 3 Atalanta.
Where is Parma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Atalanta part of?
Parma vs Atalanta is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 18% chance of winning, Atalanta a 60% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Parma and Atalanta will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Parma vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Parma's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Atalanta's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.22x) against Parma's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 12 games and Atalanta's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
18%
5.57
22%
4.57
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Parma xG
Total xG
3.00
2.00
Atalanta xG
5.57
18%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
2%
41.21
22%
4.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Atalanta Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Parma and 2.00 for Atalanta, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Parma have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 23W 19D 8L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Atalanta's form line: 29W 7D 14L from 50 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Parma against 1.88 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 25 home games (12W 9D 4L).
On the road, Atalanta have gone 11W 5D 9L from their last 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 2.06 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Atalanta in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Atalanta (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Parma vs Atalanta Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 23W 19D 8L in their last 50 games (1.76 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 29W 7D 14L in their last 50 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Atalanta away?
Parma's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.80 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Parma or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Atalanta in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won Atalanta 4-0 Parma on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
2
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Atalanta H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Atalanta?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 2, Atalanta have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Parma and Atalanta last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Atalanta 0-3 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 68%, Atalanta 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Parma) and 64% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Atalanta Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Atalanta matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Parma's games and 52% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Parma and Atalanta matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Parma's recent games and 64% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Atalanta matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Parma's recent matches and 84% of Atalanta's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Parma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Parma 1-3 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.00 xG and Atalanta 2.00 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 2.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Atalanta attack 1.22 / defence 0.87, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 18% | Draw 22% | Atalanta 60%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 52%, Atalanta 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.76 PPG, Atalanta 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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