Napoli 2-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona plays host to Napoli versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli's home record at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Cagliari (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Napoli's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Napoli lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Napoli half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 45% versus Cagliari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 55% | Cagliari 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.57 xG and Cagliari 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.954 / defence 1.204 | Cagliari attack 0.736 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.137. Data: 53 Napoli games / 15 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 49% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 23%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Cagliari 4.35. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Napoli 50% | Cagliari 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 49% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Napoli 1.57 / Cagliari 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.954 / def 1.204 | Cagliari attack 0.736 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Napoli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Cagliari xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Cagliari kick off?
Napoli vs Cagliari kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Cagliari?
Napoli 2 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Napoli vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Cagliari part of?
Napoli vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 49% chance of winning, Cagliari a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Napoli and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Cagliari?
Record (2 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Napoli and Cagliari in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Napoli's attack rating (0.95) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.74x) against Napoli's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.59
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.58
1.01
Cagliari xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
5%
21.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Napoli and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Napoli and 1.01 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 35W 9D 9L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari's form line: 18W 20D 15L from 53 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Napoli have posted 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (15W 4D 6L).
On the road, Cagliari have gone 4W 11D 10L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Napoli are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.25 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 35W 9D 9L in their last 53 games (2.15 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 18W 20D 15L in their last 53 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Cagliari away?
Napoli's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.96 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Napoli or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cagliari in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Napoli go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Napoli
2
Draws
0
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Cagliari have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Cagliari 0-1 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Cagliari?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 48%, Cagliari 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Napoli) and 44% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cagliari in 40%; Cagliari in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Napoli's recent matches and 40% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Napoli's recent games and 44% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Cagliari tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Cagliari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.57 xG and Cagliari 1.01 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.95 / defence 1.20 against Cagliari attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 49% | Draw 28% | Cagliari 23%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 55%, Cagliari 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.