Monza vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and AS Roma meet at in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Monza's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Monza haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Monza at this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AS Roma have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AS Roma haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, AS Roma have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Monza's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 0–4 with AS Roma winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 50% versus AS Roma 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 50% | AS Roma 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.11 xG and AS Roma 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | AS Roma attack 1.128 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.179. Data: 0 Monza games / 38 AS Roma games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Monza 27% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 47%. Fair-value odds: Monza 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | AS Roma 2.13. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monza 50% | AS Roma 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 27% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Monza 1.11 / AS Roma 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | AS Roma attack 1.128 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.53
AS Roma xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs AS Roma kick off?
Monza vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027.
What competition is Monza vs AS Roma part of?
Monza vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 27% chance of winning, AS Roma a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Monza and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 4W.
What form are Monza and AS Roma in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Monza (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Monza vs AS Roma?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.85x the league average against AS Roma's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.13x) against Monza's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
27%
3.64
25%
3.92
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Monza xG
Total xG
2.64
1.53
AS Roma xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
6%
16.82
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Monza and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Monza and 1.53 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monza's recent record stands at 22W 10D 6L from 38 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. Monza haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 23W 4D 11L across 38 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. AS Roma haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Monza against 1.92 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monza have managed 13W 4D 2L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 10W 1D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.55 scored and 0.82 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; AS Roma in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Pre-Season
AS Roma
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 23W 4D 11L in their last 38 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or AS Roma away?
Monza's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.26 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Monza or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, AS Roma in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-0 on 24 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when AS Roma 4-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 53%, AS Roma 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Monza) and 42% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; AS Roma in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Monza's recent matches and 42% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Monza's recent games and 42% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and AS Roma tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.