Lecce 1-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lecce face Empoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lecce and Empoli meet at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare in Serie A (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lecce have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lecce at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Empoli's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Empoli have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Empoli edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 11 Dec 2023, ended Lecce 1–1 Empoli — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lecce half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 51% versus Empoli 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 36% | Empoli 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.04 xG and Empoli 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.749 / defence 1.154 | Empoli attack 0.902 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.184. Lecce's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Lecce's last 69 games and Empoli's last 69.
Result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 30% | Empoli 40%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.31 | Draw 3.32 | Empoli 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lecce 50% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 30% | Draw 30% | Empoli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Lecce 1.04 / Empoli 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.749 / def 1.154 | Empoli attack 0.902 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Empoli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Empoli xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecce vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Lecce vs Empoli kick off?
Lecce vs Empoli kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Empoli?
Lecce 1 - 0 Empoli.
Where is Lecce vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Empoli part of?
Lecce vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 30% chance of winning, Empoli a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lecce and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Lecce vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lecce's attack at 0.75x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.90x) against Lecce's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Lecce's last 69 games and Empoli's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
30%
3.31
30%
3.32
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.27
1.23
Empoli xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecce vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lecce and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Lecce and 1.23 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lecce come into this having played 69 games, going 14W 23D 32L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.03 PPG from 69 outings (17W 20D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Lecce against 1.03 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lecce's home form reads 8W 13D 13L across their last 34 home games, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 34 away games (6W 12D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lecce are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.90 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
Lecce (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecce
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Lecce vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Lecce and Empoli in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 14W 23D 32L in their last 69 games (0.94 PPG), while Empoli have gone 17W 20D 32L in their last 69 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Empoli away?
Lecce's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.09 PPG; Empoli away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lecce
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecce vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Empoli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecce have won 2, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2025: Empoli 1-3 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Empoli?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 59%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lecce) and 35% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 32% of games; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecce vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecce and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lecce's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecce and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lecce's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Lecce's recent matches and 71% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Empoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Empoli 1-0 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.04 xG and Empoli 1.23 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Empoli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.75 / defence 1.15 against Empoli attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 30% | Draw 30% | Empoli 40%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 36%, Empoli 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 0.94 PPG, Empoli 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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