Lecce 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Lecce welcome Bologna to Stadio Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lecce have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bologna — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lecce are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bologna have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Lecce.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Bologna winning.
It is worth noting that Bologna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Lecce trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Bologna trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 35% versus Bologna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 40% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.17 xG and Bologna 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.941 / defence 1.260 | Bologna attack 0.836 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.287. Data: 43 Lecce games / 43 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 32% | Draw 27% | Bologna 41%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Bologna lead the H2H ledger, but Lecce carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lecce (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lecce 40% | Bologna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 32% | Draw 27% | Bologna 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Lecce 1.17 / Bologna 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.941 / def 1.260 | Bologna attack 0.836 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Bologna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Bologna xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Bologna kick off?
Lecce vs Bologna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Bologna?
Lecce 1 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Lecce vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Bologna part of?
Lecce vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 32% chance of winning, Bologna a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lecce and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
Record (8 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 3 | Bologna 5W.
What form are Lecce and Bologna in?
Lecce (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lecce's attack rating (0.94) and Bologna's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.75
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.53
1.35
Bologna xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lecce and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Lecce and 1.35 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Lecce have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 8D 23L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lecce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 16W 10D 17L from 43 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecce on 1.02 PPG, Bologna on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 10W 4D 7L from 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 12W 8D 23L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.10 PPG; Bologna away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Bologna runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lecce's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Lecce
3
Draws
6
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
From 9 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, Bologna have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Lecce 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 38%, Bologna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lecce) and 48% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lecce's recent matches and 52% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lecce's recent games and 48% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Bologna tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bologna in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Lecce 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Lecce 1-2 at Stadio Via del Mare, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.17 xG and Bologna 1.35 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Bologna attack 0.84 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 32% | Draw 27% | Bologna 41%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 40%, Bologna 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.02 PPG, Bologna 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.