Lecce 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lecce vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AS Roma make the trip to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare to face Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Lecce (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lecce register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, AS Roma in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lecce lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 56% versus AS Roma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 41% | AS Roma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.06 xG and AS Roma 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.874 / defence 1.159 | AS Roma attack 1.134 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.198. Data: 21 Lecce games / 59 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 25% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 49%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | AS Roma 2.04. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 90% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 25% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Lecce 1.06 / AS Roma 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.874 / def 1.159 | AS Roma attack 1.134 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.57
AS Roma xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs AS Roma kick off?
Lecce vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs AS Roma?
Lecce 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Lecce vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs AS Roma part of?
Lecce vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 25% chance of winning, AS Roma a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lecce and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Lecce and AS Roma in?
Lecce (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lecce's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.13x) against Lecce's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
25%
3.93
25%
3.97
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.63
1.57
AS Roma xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
18.98
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lecce and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Lecce and 1.57 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Lecce have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 24W 22D 13L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 30W 13D 16L from 59 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Lecce against 1.75 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lecce have posted 1.90 PPG from 29 outings (15W 10D 4L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 13W 6D 10L from 29 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lecce are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.47 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 24W 22D 13L in their last 59 games (1.59 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 30W 13D 16L in their last 59 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or AS Roma away?
Lecce's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.90 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Lecce or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AS Roma in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-1 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lecce have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Lecce
2
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 0, AS Roma have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when AS Roma 1-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 66%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lecce) and 55% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Lecce's games and 62% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecce vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lecce's recent games and 55% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and AS Roma tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce and AS Roma finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.06 xG and AS Roma 1.57 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against AS Roma attack 1.13 / defence 0.89, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 25% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 49%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 41%, AS Roma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecce 1.59 PPG, AS Roma 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.