Juventus 2-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Venezia travel to Allianz Stadium to take on Juventus in Serie A (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Juventus have gone 4W 6D 0L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Juventus at home: 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Venezia stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Juventus carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Juventus, 0 for Venezia and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2022, ended Juventus 2–1 Venezia — a Juventus win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (last 53 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 69%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Venezia trading profile (last 53 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 43% versus Venezia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 40% | Venezia 66%). Note also that Venezia surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Juventus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 69% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.78 xG and Venezia 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.007 / defence 0.785 | Venezia attack 0.660 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.300. Venezia's defence rating of 1.319 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Juventus's projected output up. Venezia's attack rating of 0.660 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Juventus have a tight defence (rating 0.785), which is pulling Venezia's projected output down. Data: built from Juventus's last 53 games and Venezia's last 15.
Result probabilities: Juventus 64% | Draw 22% | Venezia 14%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.56 | Draw 4.45 | Venezia 7.36. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (64%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Juventus's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juventus 40% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 16 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 64% | Draw 22% | Venezia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Juventus 1.78 / Venezia 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.007 / def 0.785 | Venezia attack 0.660 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Juventus (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Venezia xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventus vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Juventus vs Venezia kick off?
Juventus vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Venezia?
Juventus 2 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Juventus vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Venezia part of?
Juventus vs Venezia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 16) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 64% chance of winning, Venezia a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Juventus and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Juventus vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juventus's attack rating (1.01) and Venezia's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juventus's last 53 games and Venezia's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.45
14%
7.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.45
0.67
Venezia xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
7.36
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
2%
43.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventus vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Juventus and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Juventus and 0.67 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventus come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 23D 5L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.53 PPG from 53 outings (24W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.85 PPG, Venezia on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juventus's home form reads 14W 12D 1L across their last 27 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 6D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.51 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Venezia
Blended
Juventus (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventus
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Juventus vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Juventus and Venezia in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 25W 23D 5L in their last 53 games (1.85 PPG), while Venezia have gone 24W 9D 20L in their last 53 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Venezia away?
Juventus's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.00 PPG; Venezia away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Juventus or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Venezia in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Juventus
2
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventus vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Venezia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventus have won 2, Venezia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2025: Venezia 2-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Venezia?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 41%, Venezia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Juventus) and 67% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Venezia in 33%; Venezia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventus vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventus and Venezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Juventus's recent matches and 48% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juventus and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Juventus's recent games and 67% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Juventus and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Juventus and Venezia drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.78 xG and Venezia 0.67 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.01 / defence 0.79 against Venezia attack 0.66 / defence 1.32, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 64% | Draw 22% | Venezia 14%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 40%, Venezia 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.85 PPG, Venezia 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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