Inter 3-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 38 as Inter welcome Sampdoria to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Inter at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sampdoria have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sampdoria away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Inter have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Inter have won 0, Sampdoria 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Inter in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Sampdoria in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 60% versus Sampdoria 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 60% | Sampdoria 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.08 xG and Sampdoria 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.439 / defence 0.970 | Sampdoria attack 0.579 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.367. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.439 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Inter's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Inter games / 37 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 67% | Draw 21% | Sampdoria 12%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Sampdoria 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Inter (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Inter 60% | Sampdoria 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 67% | Draw 21% | Sampdoria 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 47% | xG Inter 2.08 / Sampdoria 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.439 / def 0.970 | Sampdoria attack 0.579 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Inter (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Sampdoria xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Sampdoria kick off?
Inter vs Sampdoria kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Sampdoria?
Inter 3 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Inter vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Sampdoria part of?
Inter vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 67% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Inter and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Inter 0W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Inter and Sampdoria in?
Inter (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Inter's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
67%
1.48
21%
4.86
12%
8.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Inter xG
Total xG
2.85
0.77
Sampdoria xG
1.48
67%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
8.26
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
2%
66.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Inter and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Inter and 0.77 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Sampdoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Inter have picked up 2.19 PPG on a 24W 9D 4L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 10W 6D 21L from 37 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.33 PPG from 18 outings (13W 3D 2L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 4W 3D 11L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inter are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.24 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 24W 9D 4L in their last 37 games (2.19 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 10W 6D 21L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Sampdoria away?
Inter's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.33 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Inter or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inter and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Inter won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Inter
2
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Inter have won 2, Sampdoria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2023, when Sampdoria 0-0 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Sampdoria?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 56%, Sampdoria 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Inter) and 44% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Sampdoria in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Inter's recent matches and 39% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Inter's recent games and 44% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Sampdoria 3-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.08 xG and Sampdoria 0.77 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.44 / defence 0.97 against Sampdoria attack 0.58 / defence 1.30, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 67% | Draw 21% | Sampdoria 12%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 60%, Sampdoria 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sampdoria's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.