Inter 2-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inter at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inter host Hellas Verona at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Inter have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Inter are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hellas Verona's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Inter at 1.40 PPG versus Hellas Verona's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Inter, 0 for Hellas Verona and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Inter trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Hellas Verona trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Inter 53% and Hellas Verona 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 53% | Hellas Verona 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.85 xG and Hellas Verona 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.286 / defence 1.003 | Hellas Verona attack 0.981 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.233. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Inter's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Inter games / 31 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 51% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 24%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Hellas Verona 4.17. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Inter 50% | Hellas Verona 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 51% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Inter 1.85 / Hellas Verona 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.286 / def 1.003 | Hellas Verona attack 0.981 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Inter (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Hellas Verona xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Inter vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Inter 2 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Inter vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Hellas Verona part of?
Inter vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 51% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Inter and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Hellas Verona?
Record (1 meetings): Inter 1W | Draws 0 | Hellas Verona 0W.
What form are Inter and Hellas Verona in?
Inter (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inter's attack rating (1.29) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.92
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Inter xG
Total xG
3.06
1.22
Hellas Verona xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
4%
26.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Inter and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Inter and 1.22 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inter come into this having played 30 games, going 18W 9D 3L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (12W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Inter's home form reads 10W 3D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (3W 7D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hellas Verona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.80 scored and 1.47 conceded. Hellas Verona's attacking output running into Inter's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 77%.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 18W 9D 3L in their last 30 games (2.10 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 9D 9L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Hellas Verona away?
Inter's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.20 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Inter or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2023, when Inter won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Inter
2
Draws
0
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 8, Hellas Verona have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Inter 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Hellas Verona?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Inter at 53%, Hellas Verona at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Inter) and 53% (Hellas Verona). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Inter's games and 80% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Inter's matches and 53% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Inter and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Hellas Verona 2-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.85 xG and Hellas Verona 1.22 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hellas Verona landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.29 / defence 1.00 against Hellas Verona attack 0.98 / defence 1.37, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 51% | Draw 25% | Hellas Verona 24%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 53%, Hellas Verona 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.