Inter 0-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to take on Inter. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Inter are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza than their overall form suggests.
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Inter) versus 1.40 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Inter, 0 for Fiorentina and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 4–3 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Inter trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Fiorentina trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 55% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 60% | Fiorentina 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.19 xG and Fiorentina 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.153 / defence 0.714 | Fiorentina attack 1.007 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.158. Inter's defence rating of 0.714 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Inter games / 65 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 44% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 26%. Fair-value odds: Inter 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Fiorentina 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inter 20% | Fiorentina 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 44% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Inter 1.19 / Fiorentina 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.153 / def 0.714 | Fiorentina attack 1.007 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Inter (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Fiorentina xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Fiorentina kick off?
Inter vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Inter 0 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Inter vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Fiorentina part of?
Inter vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 44% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Inter and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Inter 2W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 0W.
What form are Inter and Fiorentina in?
Inter (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Inter's attack at 1.15x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.33
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Inter xG
Total xG
2.02
0.83
Fiorentina xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
8%
12.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Inter and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Inter and 0.83 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inter come into this having played 65 games, going 41W 11D 13L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.52 PPG from 65 outings (29W 12D 24L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Inter's home form reads 24W 3D 5L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (10W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inter are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.40 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 41W 11D 13L in their last 65 games (2.06 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 29W 12D 24L in their last 65 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Fiorentina away?
Inter's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.34 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Inter or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inter and Fiorentina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Inter
2
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 6, Fiorentina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Fiorentina?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 44%, Fiorentina 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Inter) and 47% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fiorentina in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Inter's recent matches and 56% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Inter's recent games and 47% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Inter 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Inter 0-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.19 xG and Fiorentina 0.83 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Inter fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.15 / defence 0.71 against Fiorentina attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 44% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 26%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 60%, Fiorentina 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Fiorentina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Fiorentina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.