Inter 6-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inter host Bologna at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Inter — All Games: 2W 1D 0L from 3 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.33 points per game. Last five: W W D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Serie A matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Inter 2.33 PPG, Bologna 2.33 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Inter in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
Bologna in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 67% versus Bologna 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Inter 100% | Bologna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.51 xG and Bologna 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.249 / defence 0.968 | Bologna attack 0.683 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.379. Data: 3 Inter games / 3 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 51% | Draw 26% | Bologna 23%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Bologna 4.35. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Inter 67% | Bologna 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 51% | Draw 26% | Bologna 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Inter 1.51 / Bologna 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.249 / def 0.968 | Bologna attack 0.683 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Inter (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Bologna xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Bologna kick off?
Inter vs Bologna kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Bologna?
Inter 6 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Inter vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Bologna part of?
Inter vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 51% chance of winning, Bologna a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Inter and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inter and Bologna in?
Inter (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D. Bologna (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inter's attack rating (1.25) and Bologna's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.85
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Inter xG
Total xG
2.42
0.91
Bologna xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
19.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Inter and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Inter and 0.91 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Inter have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 2W 1D 0L record — W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inter on 2.33 PPG, Bologna on 2.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. Inter's scoring rate against Bologna's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Inter have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bologna in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Bologna in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Bologna have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Inter or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bologna in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Inter
3
Draws
3
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 4, Bologna have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Bologna?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bologna tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 67%, Bologna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Inter and 33% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bologna in 67%; Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Inter's recent matches and 33% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Inter's matches and 33% of Bologna's.
Do Inter and Bologna tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bologna in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Bologna 6-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.51 xG and Bologna 0.91 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Bologna attack 0.68 / defence 1.00, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 51% | Draw 26% | Bologna 23%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 100%, Bologna 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inter 2.33 PPG, Bologna 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. Inter scored 6 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna shipped 6 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.