Hellas Verona 1-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hellas Verona at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi plays host to Hellas Verona versus Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 23 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hellas Verona have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Hellas Verona have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Hellas Verona's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hellas Verona lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Sampdoria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 76% and Sampdoria 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hellas Verona 67% | Sampdoria 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.78 xG and Sampdoria 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.203 / defence 1.076 | Sampdoria attack 0.655 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.256. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Hellas Verona games / 33 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 57% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 17%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Sampdoria 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hellas Verona (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hellas Verona as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 70% | Sampdoria 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 57% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Hellas Verona 1.78 / Sampdoria 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.203 / def 1.076 | Sampdoria attack 0.655 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sampdoria xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria?
Hellas Verona 1 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria part of?
Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 57% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hellas Verona and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Sampdoria in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.66x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
57%
1.74
25%
3.94
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.66
0.89
Sampdoria xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
3%
34.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.89 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 13W 9D 11L from 33 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 20L across 33 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hellas Verona by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 9W 2D 5L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 4W 2D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.21 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 13W 9D 11L in their last 33 games (1.45 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 8W 5D 20L in their last 33 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Sampdoria away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.81 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Sampdoria have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Sampdoria 3-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 75%, Sampdoria 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Hellas Verona and 50% for Sampdoria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Hellas Verona's games and 38% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Hellas Verona's matches and 50% of Sampdoria's.
Do Hellas Verona and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Sampdoria finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.78 xG and Sampdoria 0.89 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.20 / defence 1.08 against Sampdoria attack 0.66 / defence 1.41, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 57% | Draw 25% | Sampdoria 17%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 67%, Sampdoria 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hellas Verona arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.